Bayesian uncertainty analysis represents a powerful statistical framework that integrates prior knowledge with observed measurement data to quantify uncertainty in a consistent probabilistic manner.

One week after “Liberation Day”—one of the largest tariff announcements in U.S. history—the Trump administration has reversed course again. All Liberation Day tariffs are now on a 90-day pause, except ...

Expertise from Forbes Councils members, operated under license. Opinions expressed are those of the author. When markets tighten and the economy starts to feel uncertain, companies often respond in a ...

The classical approach to probability theory requires that estimates for probability distributions be based on empirical data. However, in many practical cases, the available data may not be available ...

Expertise from Forbes Councils members, operated under license. Opinions expressed are those of the author. It is common wisdom in the business world that fears of economic turbulence tend to be ...

Antifragility goes beyond resilience or bouncing back; it involves thriving and improving in the face of volatility and stress. To develop an antifragile mindset, entrepreneurs must be psychologically ...

How much the planet warms with each ton of carbon dioxide remains one of the most important questions in climate science, but ...

In large and complex human groups, social rules reduce individuals' uncertainty about their own choice set, including through these rules' simultaneous influence on the choice set of other individuals ...

With little ability to see how far the Trump administration is taking its disruptive policies, corporations and investors face higher risks, our columnist says. By Jeff Sommer Jeff Sommer writes ...